Showing 901 results for Ice
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
Language teacher professional identity refers to each individual’s understanding of their identity, helping them prepare for their professional lives and is affected by different factors. This study thus explored the reasons why language teachers chose this profession, their perceptions of the notion of language teacher professional identity (LTPI), the influential factors in the formation or change of professional identity, and the contribution of communities of practice. A 37-item questionnaire along with five open-ended questions was developed and administered to 109 English language teachers studying Teaching English as a Foreign Language (TEFL) at Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST). The outcome of the study revealed that language teachers perceived their professional identity mostly related to students, self-knowledge and awareness, and practice into knowledge. They stated that students, context, and disciplinary knowledge could greatly cause constant change in the progression and formation of professional identity. The research could shed more light into the improvement of language teachers’ professional development and teacher education programs.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
Writing assessment literacy(WAL) for second or foreign language (L2) teachers, which refers to teachers’ knowledge, conceptions, and practice of writing assessment in L2 contexts, has lately received attention from scholars. Although there has been significant debate about the impact of contextual and conceptual factors on teachers’ assessment literacy, studies focusing on how such factors influence teachers’ WAL are lacking. The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the way Iranian English writing teachers' conception of assessment, and macro, meso, and micro contextual variables impact their writing assessment practice. It also looked at how writing teachers make assessment decisions in order to negotiate and find a compromise when their assessment views and beliefs diverge from the assessment policies in their local contexts. The data was collected through semi-structured interviews with ten in-service l2 writing teachers in Iran. The findings show that participants had positive conceptions about formative writing assessments but they stated that they mostly used summative assessment in writing classes. Macro level contextual factors turned out to mostly impacted teachers’ writing assessment practices and conceptions. The results underscored the role of school and work experience in shaping and changing writing assessment conceptions. The findings of this study contribute to our current understanding of WAL development and provision of more efficient assessment training for language teachers in teacher education programs.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
The increasing ubiquity and impact of audiovisual content has turned it into one of the primary objects of study in a number of disciplines in humanities, including Translation Studies. In the recent decade, audiovisual translation (AVT) has been a thriving research focus in many parts of the world. This article aims at mapping AVT in the context of Iran by reviewing the published Persian AVT research worldwide. The article is organized into two parts: the first part provides an overview of the main research articles, delineating the main research trends in AVT research in Iran. The second part presents and discusses research gaps and areas that merit further scholarly attention by academia. The article concludes that research on the topic in Iran is still in a fairly early stage, with the studies focusing mainly on dubbing and subtitling of audiovisual products. Furthermore, areas such as accessibility and inclusion, in particular, voice-over and game localization are grossly under-researched. To fill the gap, certain areas are highlighted and recommended for future research.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
I aim to explore whether there are similarities and differences between the ethical virtues and vices in Nahj al-Balāghah in terms of cognitive-linguistics and based on the image schemas of Evans and Green's Model piety, perseverance, expenditure are the ethical teachings, described in Nahj al-Balāghah, chosen and analyzed based on image schemas. And the vices described in Nahj al-Balāghah are Secularism, greed, and jealousy. Studying the descriptive-analytical approach, I investigate and compare the virtues and vices discussed in sermons and short sayings of Nahj al-Balāghah in terms of cognitive semantics. Finally, the findings reveal that the general types of image schemas of Evans and Green’s model (schemas of Force, Balance, Unity/ Multiplcity, Existence, Identity, Locomotion, Containment, Space) have almost similar frequencies for both the virtues and vices. Among all, the schemas of force are the most repetitive in virtues and vices. And the balance is on the second level. The research finding is significant because it shows the similarity of the virtues and vices in using the different types of schemas in Nahj al-Balāghah. Their main difference lies in the way of using the subsets of the general concepts.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
This study investigated the construct validity and measurement invariance of the Teacher Emotion Questionnaire to introduce a valid and reliable instrument for assessing English-as-a-foreign-language (EFL) teachers’ emotions inside the classroom. Second language (L2) teacher emotions have been largely neglected, despite the fact that Educational Psychology has long recognized and researched the role of teacher emotions in different aspects of teaching and learning. To bridge this gap, the current study had 208 Iranian EFL teachers in private language institutes fill out the Teacher Emotion Questionnaire (TEQ), which assessed six emotions teachers experience in their classroom, i.e., Joy, Pride, Love, Anger, Fatigue/Exhaustion, and Hopelessness. The preliminary analysis of the data showed that six items from the TEQ had a factor loading below the minimum recommended level of 0.3, meaning that they contributed to the total variance in the participants’ score less than expected. The collected data were then submitted to confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for the purpose of construct validation and establishment of the factorial structure of the TEQ. The CFA results indicated that the hypothesized six-factor analysis had more favorable goodness-of-fit indices than both a one-factor structure and a two-factor structure (e.g., positive versus negative emotions). Multilevel CFA revealed that the tested six-factor structure of the TEQ was invariant across male and female EFL teachers. The implications for the use of TES in EFL teaching contexts are discussed, and some suggestions are proposed for further validation of the TEQ in language teaching contexts.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
Over the past decades, research on language teacher engagement in action research (AR) has received a surge of interest. However, little research is available on how teachers’ experience contribute to their development of agency and professional performances through their participation in an AR program. Accordingly, this study explored the role of experience in five novice and five experienced language teachers’ development of agency and practice before, during, and after their engagement in an action research engagement program (AREP). To this end, we collected data via semi-structured interviews, reflective journals, and classroom observations. The findings revealed that novice and experienced teachers’ development of their agency and professional practice undergo similar trajectories. Moreover, the study argues that although experience affects teacher-researchers’ agentive role and performances, novice and experienced teachers go through similar paths as they engage in AR. However, the novice teachers became more oriented towards reflection-in-action during and after their engagement in AREP. Moreover, the novice teachers chose more AR tools and drew more on their AR experience which, in turn, facilitated their professional growth through tool transformation. We conclude the paper with implications for teacher education to better understand the role of AR in teachers’ agency development and professionalism.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
The current study identified EFL teachers' emotional experiences in technology-equipped classes from an appraisal theoretical framework (Frenzel, 2014). It further explored the underlying antecedents of the recognized emotions and sought instructors' suggestions for improving the current unpleasant feelings experienced. To this end, 10 EFL teachers took part in the study. Necessary data were collected through journalkeeping and semi-structured interviews. The obtained data were analyzed using Merriam's (2009) inductive approach. Research findings revealed that teachers enjoyed the class as a result of students' achievement, positive interactions among learners, and pupils' active involvement. Moreover, they felt proud if they received positive feedback from students, observed progress in students' learning, and felt capable of instructing the learners. Furthermore, shame was experienced because of feeling unable to work with technical tools, strong filtration on educational websites, and not having internet-connected systems in class. Anger was also reported to be felt if they had to work with obsolete or impaired devices. Finally, teachers' pity was aroused as they perceived the lack of professional technical tools as detrimental to students' learning. They also mentioned that they felt compassion for learners as they cannot take part in CBTs and have limitations accessing e-sources online. Teachers also argued that unpleasant emotions could be minimized through investing in equipping classes, holding training courses, and establishing a criterion for teaching evaluation. In the end, the implications and limitations of the study are discussed.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
Choosing the active or passive constructions for the native speakers of a language, as the name suggests, is simply a "choice" and "selection" and the speaker uses one of these two voices to express the meaning according to his situation and recognition. This conscious choice between the two structures mentioned is not a problem as long as the speaker speaks his native language. The problem begins when a person wants to speak or write in another language and for his “choice”, among the data and training that he has received in a foreign language up to this point, he looks for a reason to choose the best option among two voices and not allow errors. This article tries to answer the question: how can students for whom Russian is not their native language consciously choose a passive construction? In other words, this article is not intended to compare the Voice in Persian and Russian or to observe students’ “mistakes” in encountering this category. The article is aimed at developing a questionnaire containing the “correct” options from among the types of quasi-passive, passive and active and implementing it for 86 students of the Russian language in Iran and Russia (for whom Russian is considered a non-native language) and, based on the analysis of their answers, to reflect them "trend" in the use of passive structure. From this point of view, we try to help Russian teachers in teaching the use of the passive voice.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
This study investigated the relationships between self-esteem, empowerment attitudes, and perceptions of classroom justice among EFL (English as a Foreign Language) learners. Relative stratified sampling was used to choose the 329 participants that make up the research sample. Cronbach’s alpha was used to assess the reliability of the questionnaire. This study used path analysis within the framework of structural equations, using a descriptive-correlational methodology, to analyze data and test research hypotheses. Software such as AMOS22 and SPSS22 were used to analyze the collected data. The results showed a significant correlation between students' perceptions of classroom justice dimensions and their feelings of empowerment and self-worth. The implications extend beyond the confines of the classroom, pointing towards a holistic approach to education that considers both the interpersonal dynamics within the learning environment and the individual empowerment of students.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
This research aims to study the effect of the internal aspect of the language in the development of the perception of meanings and its function in the translation process and to study the role of reminiscence and association of the translator's prior knowledge of meanings when choosing an equivalent in translation. However, in translation, only one of its semes will be able to manifest itself. But, when evaluating the equivalents chosen in literary translation, we sometimes encounter cases that indicate that the translator has gone beyond the usual vocabulary related to the semantic field of this word. The fundamental question is: in these cases, the question of choosing an equivalent is based on which intralinguistic factors and which elements of the language influence this choice? So, based on the opinions of Humboldt, Erdmann, and Gauker regarding the dimensions of language and the translator's thinking, a semantic study of the equivalents selected in three Persian translations of André Gide's novel Strait is the Gate was conducted. This comparative study demonstrates the translator's transition from the external to the internal domain of language to represent secondary meanings. Accordingly, although the translator can traverse the internal aspect of language thanks to his cultural and literary knowledge, to convey the semantic idea and figurative meaning that resides in the word in the source language, he needs a connection between his linguistic knowledge in the source language and his postulationist conception in the target language.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (2-2024)
Abstract
Among increasing interest in emotional and relational dimensions of language teaching, this conceptual review highlights the essential effect of interpersonal justice in promoting learner well-being and engagement in English as a Foreign Language (EFL) settings. Based on Self-Determination Theory (SDT), asserting that learning is most effective when individuals' basic psychological needs for competence, autonomy, and relatedness are fulfilled, this review investigates the effect of interpersonal justice can address these needs and it also synthesizes extended empirical results to investigate the effect of respectful, empathetic, and dignified class interactions on cultivating engagement, and well-being in EFL students. Recontextualization of the previous research in this review illustrates that previously examined justice-related elements had contributed to enhancing learner engagement and well-being. Justice educational activities, including unbiased feedback, active listening, and dignity-preserving communication, reduce anxiety, foster trust, and maintain learner persistence, thereby promoting engagement and well-being. The review ends with practical implications for teachers and policymakers and outlines future research directions focused on extending comprehension of interpersonal justice as an affective and motivational structure in EFL settings.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (1-2024)
Abstract
Salt stress is a serious environmental threat reducing crop yield. Hence, developing any breeding plan requires an understanding of the basic physiology and cell molecular genetic regulation under salinity stress. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of gene expression changes on ion homeostasis comprising salt overly sensitive (SOS1) and vacuolar Na+/H+ antiporter (NHX1) along with ion content measurement and proline content in the rice mutants at Rice Research Institute of Iran in 2018-2019. To survey these realities, tolerant mutant genotypes (em4hs290 and em4hs84) along with Hashemi parent cultivar, IR28 (sensitive), and FL478 (tolerant) seedlings were treated with 100 mM NaCl. Based on the results of growth indices, the seedling length of Hashemi cultivar and IR28 decreased considerably about 44.7%, and 44.2% reduction to that of the control, and the leaves progressively yellowed. Results showed that proline content and K+ and K+/Na+ ratio increased about ~2–3-fold higher in the tolerant genotypes than in the susceptible ones. Also, the overall amount of the OsNHX1 and SOS1 expression increased in tolerant genotypes compared to the susceptible ones. Accordingly, the compatible solute accumulation significantly advanced resulting in improvement of ionic homeostasis and probably suppresses the stress. Moreover, the variable pattern of gene expression in the two salt-tolerant mutants (em4hs290 and em4hs84) and Hashemi parent showed that the induced mutation could increase the salt-tolerant in mutant genotypes through ionic and osmotic homeostasis. Generally, these tolerant mutant genotypes could be applied to develop salt-tolerant varieties in rice breeding programs which can bring on production sustainability.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (1-2024)
Abstract
This study investigates the factors affecting coffee exports in Cameroon. For this purpose, we employed the gravity model. Considering the sample characteristics, the model is estimated with the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) method. The main material of the study is a panel data set covering the years 2001-2021 for ten countries, Cameroon’s main coffee export partners. The findings show that the GDP of importing countries, coffee export prices, and bilateral investment treaties (BITs) positively influence exports, whereas distance, exchange rates, and Cameroon’s GDP have negative impacts. The results highlight Cameroon’s logistics infrastructure deficiencies and the significance of stable, high-quality production. The Cameroonian government should implement policies to improve production quality and efficiency by expanding agricultural extension services and offering farmers input and investment incentives to address these challenges. Additionally, improving port efficiency will necessitate the digitalization of operations, implementation of data-driven planning, and strategic infrastructure investments.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (1-2024)
Abstract
The agricultural ecosystem provides various functions and services for humans. So, investigating their role and importance in the agricultural land programming and management is one of the goals research. In this research used Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) for the identification of the Agricultural Ecosystem Functions and Services (AEFS). Also, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) models used for weighting and prioritizing of the AEFS like Step wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) for calculating of their weight, and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS), and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) used for prioritization them. The research data extracted with field survey, random sampling and completing the Delphi questionnaire of the 40 agricultural specialist experts in the north of Iran. Also, the R2 coefficient was used to compare the AEFS prioritization models. The SWARA technique findings showed that provisioning, regulation, and cultural functions with weights of 0.0298, 0.0286 and 0.0250 have the highest weight, respectively. Also, the results indicated that the SAW model with the R2=0.90 was chosen as the prioritization appropriate model. Provisioning, regulation, and cultural functions with marginal weights of 0.6319, 0.5448, and 0.5092 were ranked the first to third priority respectively. Also, food supply, employment, genetic material supply, and educational and research services were important positive services of the agricultural ecosystem compared to other services. it is suggested that more appropriate programming and more research be done by relevant organizations for the sustainable management of agricultural ecosystems in northern Iran.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (1-2024)
Abstract
The present study was aimed to investigate the effect of predicting variables of quality of life (hexagonal capitals, place attachment, benefiting of governmental services) and psychological coping strategies of Iranian farmer families facing climate variability. The method this research was survey, and the current research was analyzed using structural equation modeling. The participants were all farmer families living in the villages. The data were collected with a questionnaire and a stratified random sampling method. Findings revealed that variables of the proposed model were able to explain 69% of the changes quality of life under climate variability conditions. The results demonstrated that hexagonal capitals and place attachment had a positive and significant impact on psychological coping strategies and quality of life of farmer families. The implementation of specific interventions with the aim of farmers’ capitals reinforcement, paying attention to rural infrastructures and psychological interventions in order to enhance the resistance capacity of farmer families against climate variability has been recommended.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (1-2024)
Abstract
Probiotic juices have experienced a notable rise in popularity due to their potential health benefits, particularly for digestive health. This study examined the viability, physicochemical characteristics, and sensory qualities of kiwifruit juice containing Lacticaseibacillus paracasei B31-2. To analyze the data, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models were used to predict various factors, including pH, acidity, viable cell counts of L. paracasei B31-2, color differences (ΔE), and overall acceptance. Probiotic L. paracasei B31-2 was added to the kiwifruit juice at different concentrations (0%, 1% and 2%) and stored at 4 °C. The probiotic juices showed fewer changes in pH, acidity, and color compared to the control juice during storage at room temperature. The sample with a 2% probiotic concentration exhibited the highest viable cell count (7.98 log CFU/mL) and received the most sensory scores among the tested samples. A strong correlation between the predictions made by the GPR model and the actual observed data further validated its effectiveness in similar experimental contexts. This suggests that GPR could offer strategic benefits by lowering laboratory costs and improving analytical efficiency. The GPR model's precision in closely matching real-world data demonstrates its potential as a cost-effective and expedited tool for scientific inquiries. Overall, these findings indicate that kiwifruit juice serves as a promising substrate for carrier of L. paracasei B31-2
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Achieving sustained and long-term economic growth necessitates the optimal allocation and utilization of resources at the national level. This goal relies heavily on the existence of efficient financial markets, particularly well-functioning and extensive capital markets. Numerous macroeconomic variables can influence the level of risk associated with shareholder rights, corporate cash flows, and adjusted discount rates. Additionally, changes in economic conditions can alter both the quantity and nature of investment opportunities.
However, establishing a fixed and consistent relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price indices remains challenging. The complex and dynamic nature of financial markets makes it difficult to identify a method that accurately reflects economic conditions and captures the most critical influencing variables. Therefore, this study employs machine learning models to identify the key macroeconomic factors affecting stock price indices.
Methodology
Feature selection is one of the most common and crucial techniques in data preprocessing and serves as an essential component of machine learning. This study employs feature selection models to identify the most relevant predictors of the stock price index. The models utilized include the random forest method and regularized linear regression. To examine the nature of the relationships between variables, the jointness method was applied. Additionally, the mutual information analysis was conducted to assess the influence of key variables over different decades, enabling a deeper understanding of how the impact of macroeconomic factors on stock prices has evolved over time.
Findings
The study analyzed the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on stock price indices, focusing on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The findings from the Random Forest (RF) and Regularized Linear Regression (RLR) models indicate that exchange rates, financial development, inflation, economic growth, trade openness, and global uncertainty significantly influence Iran’s stock price index. The results demonstrate that global uncertainty, interest rates, and trade openness exert negative effects on stock prices, whereas the other variables positively influence stock prices.
The jointness method was employed to analyze the relationships between these variables, further confirming their significance. Moreover, the Mutual Information method was used to examine how the influence of these key variables varied across different decades.
Discussion and Conclusion
Among the variables examined, exchange rates, financial development, inflation, economic growth, trade openness, and global uncertainty emerged as the most significant factors influencing Iran’s stock price index. This finding is not surprising, given Iran’s historical experience with significant exchange rate fluctuations and persistent inflationary pressures. Global uncertainty has consistently influenced domestic markets in Iran due to political and economic instability. Previous research has highlighted the complex relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock price indices (Ratanapakorn & Sharma, 2007). Scholars have argued that the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates can significantly affect monetary and fiscal policy, as a recessionary stock market can reduce overall demand and impact broader economic performance.
Extensive research has also investigated the relationship between inflation and stock prices, identifying inflation as a significant factor affecting stock indices
(Boudoukh & Richardson, 1993; Fama & Schwert, 1977; Jaffe & Mandelker, 1976) . While some studies have reported a positive correlation between inflation and stock prices, others have found a negative relationship.
Moreover, trade openness has been recognized as a key factor influencing stock market fluctuations. Open economies are more vulnerable to external shocks due to increased global risk-sharing among markets. Although some studies have not found conclusive evidence of a direct effect between trade openness and stock prices, trade openness remains one of the influential factors (Nickmansh, 2016).
Stock prices reflect the present value of future cash flows, which are subject to two main effects: cash flow changes driven by increased production and interest rates, which serve as a discount factor. Stock prices tend to decline when expected cash flows decrease or interest rates rise. The level of actual economic activity directly influences cash flows, as higher economic activity generally leads to increased cash flow. Among the various indicators used to predict commodity markets, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is considered the most comprehensive measure of economic activity (Yuhasin, 2011; Christopher et al., 2006).
mouseout="msoCommentHide('_com_1')" onmouseover="msoCommentShow('_anchor_1','_com_1')">Finally, global uncertainty plays a significant role in shaping the internal economic environment of countries, making it an important global macroeconomic variable that influences the performance of publicly traded companies on the stock exchange.
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Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Over the past few decades, the housing market has experienced recurrent boom-and-bust cycles and considerable price volatility. A significant portion of this volatility can be attributed to speculative activities. Speculators often purchase properties with the expectation of future price increases, which contributes to the formation of housing price bubble. These bubbles not only destabilize the economy but also lead to serious social consequences. As such, policymakers have consistently focused on identifying the determinants of speculative behavior and housing market bubbles. One of the government’s regulatory instruments in this domain is the transfer tax, intended to influence trader behavior and mitigate housing price bubbles. This study investigates the effect of transfer tax policies on the housing price bubble in Shiraz city.
Methodology
This research employs an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate the dynamic processes of the housing market and analyze the contributing factors to price bubble formation. The model incorporates four key agents active in the housing market: sellers, buyers (including both personal-consumption and speculative buyers), developers, and real estate agencies. Data and statistics up to the beginning of 1401 (2022) were incorporated into the model to forecast housing prices in Shiraz through 1409 (2030).
Three scenarios were tested by varying the proportion of speculative buyers—30%, 50%, and 70%—and applying different transfer tax rates of 1% and 5%. The simulation explores how these variables influence the magnitude and growth of the housing price bubble under different market conditions.
Results and Discussion
The findings reveal that, regardless of the proportion of speculative buyers, the implementation of transfer taxes can reduce the housing price bubble in Shiraz. However, the extent of this effect varies with market conditions. These results align with prior studies, such as Chen (2017) and Izadkhasthi et al. (2018), which found that transfer taxes can mitigate housing price volatility.
Proponents of transfer taxes argue that speculative activities drive housing price bubbles and that such taxes increase transaction costs, thereby reducing speculative trading and contributing to market stability. For instance, with a 70% speculative buyer share and a 5% tax rate, the housing price bubble decreased by approximately 25% between 1401 and 1409. In contrast, a 1% tax rate under the same market conditions led to a 22% reduction in the bubble. However, when only 30% of buyers were speculative, the tax had a comparatively more minor effect, indicating that the efficacy of the tax diminishes when fewer speculators are present.
Conclusion
The results suggest that increasing the transfer tax rate does not necessarily reduce the housing price bubble. In scenarios with 30%, 40%, and 50% speculative buyer presence, higher average tax rates did not result in a significant reduction in the housing bubble and, in some cases, slightly intensified it. This supports earlier warnings in financial economics literature—such as those by Schwert and Seguin (1993) – that excessive transaction taxes may deter informed traders, who play a vital role in maintaining market efficiency and price stability. Similarly, Friedman (1953) emphasized the stabilizing role of rational traders in financial markets.
According to the simulation results, Article 59 of Iran’s Direct Taxes Law, which stipulates a 5% transfer tax, may help reduce housing bubbles in Shiraz and potentially nationwide. However, the optimal tax rate should be adaptive and context-specific, considering the varying proportions of speculative and non-speculative market participants. Therefore, the government is advised to collect comprehensive data on the structure of the housing market, assess the share of speculative transactions, and adjust tax rates accordingly.
Moreover, since the transfer tax only applies to documented transactions, many informal or contract-based transactions—particularly those occurring prior to property completion—escape taxation. In such cases, builders may sell properties through promissory notes or undocumented agreements, which are difficult to track and tax. As a result, it is recommended that the government strengthen monitoring mechanisms for such transactions. This includes identifying and intercepting units exchanged informally or without official documentation to ensure both effective taxation and bubble control.
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Asset bubbles arise when the prices of assets – such as real estate or stocks –significantly exceed their intrinsic value due to excessive speculation and investor euphoria. These bubbles are typically characterized by rapid price escalations that become disconnected from fundamental economic indicators, driven more by market psychology than by real economic value. Although asset bubbles may generate short-term economic benefits, they pose serious risks to financial stability, as their eventual collapse often results in sharp market corrections, financial crises, and broader economic downturns.
Monetary policy, primarily executed by central banks, plays a critical role in influencing macroeconomic conditions through liquidity management, credit accessibility, and interest rate adjustments. On the one hand, expansionary monetary policies—characterized by low interest rates and increased liquidity—can stimulate speculative investment and contribute to the formation of asset bubbles. On the other hand, central banks can use contractionary policies—such as raising interest rates or reducing liquidity—to dampen excessive market exuberance and promote financial stability.
The complex relationship between asset bubbles and monetary policy underscores a significant challenge for economists and policymakers, who must balance the goals of economic growth and financial stability. A nuanced understanding of this relationship is crucial for designing effective regulatory frameworks and policy interventions capable of mitigating harmful boom-and-bust cycles and fostering sustainable economic development.
Methodology
This study examines stock market bubbles and the influence of monetary policy in five D-8 countries, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Egypt, over the period 2009–2023. Two key analytical approaches are employed:
Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity with Confidence Interval (LPPLS-CI) for detecting stock price bubbles, and
- Panel Vector Autoregression (P-VAR) for assessing the dynamic impact of monetary policy variables.
The LPPLS-CI model enhances traditional LPPLS techniques by incorporating confidence intervals, thus improving the accuracy and robustness of bubble detection. This model identifies unsustainable asset price growth and log-periodic oscillations—signals typically preceding bubble collapses. Its predictive capacity offers early warning signals that are valuable for financial market monitoring.
To evaluate the effects of monetary policy on these bubbles, the study employs the P-VAR model. This econometric framework captures interdependencies between multiple time-series variables—including stock prices, interest rates, inflation, and liquidity—by analyzing their lagged interactions. This comprehensive approach facilitates a dynamic understanding of how monetary policy decisions shape speculative trends and bubble formation. The effectiveness of this analysis depends on key methodological considerations, including appropriate model specification, lag length selection, and rigorous validation techniques.
Results and Discussion
The LPPLS-CI analysis confirms the presence of stock price bubbles across various time scales (short-, medium-, and long-term) in the selected countries throughout the 2009–2023 period. These bubbles were characterized by rapid price increases fueled by speculative behavior and optimistic market sentiment, ultimately followed by sharp corrections.
The P-VAR results demonstrated that high inflation, increased liquidity, and low interest rates were key contributors to bubble formation. These conditions encouraged capital inflows into financial markets, driving up stock prices beyond sustainable levels. However, as monetary policy conditions tightened or external economic shocks emerged, these bubbles burst, resulting in significant financial losses and increased market volatility.
The findings underscore the dual nature of monetary policy: while accommodative policies can promote growth and investment, they also risk inflating asset bubbles. The study emphasizes the need for balanced and proactive policy responses to prevent systemic instability. Regulatory oversight, timely monetary adjustments, and enhanced early warning mechanisms are crucial in minimizing the risks associated with speculative excesses.
Conclusion
Monetary policy in the examined D-8 countries significantly influences the formation and trajectory of stock market bubbles. Expansionary policies may exacerbate bubbles, leading to financial shocks, economic contractions, and capital flight when the bubbles burst. The study underscores the imperative for central banks in emerging markets to carefully manage accurate interest rates, control inflation, and stabilize liquidity to safeguard financial markets.
Key components of monetary policy affecting asset bubbles include:
- Interest Rates: Low rates can stimulate borrowing and speculation, while higher rates can curb overheating but may suppress growth.
- Quantitative Easing (QE): Although QE enhances liquidity and asset values, prolonged implementation can fuel speculative bubbles.
To prevent crises, Policy recommendations include:
- Regulatory Oversight: Strengthen financial regulations to enhance transparency and mitigate systemic risks.
- Macroprudential Tools: Implement counter-cyclical capital buffers and risk-weighted asset requirements.
- Monetary Policy Adjustments: Implement forward guidance and timely rate changes to manage expectations.
- Early Warning Systems: Monitor key financial indicators to detect signs of market overheating.
- Investment Diversification: Encourage asset diversification to reduce systemic exposure.
Implementing these strategies can help minimize the occurrence and adverse consequences of asset bubbles, contributing to more resilient financial systems and sustainable economic growth in the D-8 member countries.
Volume 0, Issue 3 (9-2008)
Abstract
Abstract
TAZKERAT - AL - ULIA is the only work by Farrid - Al - Din Attar in prose form. It expresses
the biography, ideas and deeds of seventy two mystics and sofism. The reflection of historical,
political and literary events affairs and creation on the works of Attar in particular , and Farsi
literature of that time in general is quite interesting. In order to study the dramatic aspects of
Tazkerat –Al –Ulia it is necessary to read, analyse and evaluate them in a different set of literary
and artistic terms, that is to say dramatic and theatrical terms. The elements of theatre contain
elements of play, performance, dramatic devices and techniques. In order to reveal the theatrical
capacities and potentials of Tazkerat – Al - Ulia a selection of its narratives (three stories) 1 -
Fozail Ayyaz, 2 - Rabee Advieh, 3 – Hosein – Ebn - Mansour Hallaj is in the center of present
study and their theatrical and dramatic aspects of the prementioned stories have been analysed
and evaluated in theatre critical terms. The researcher hopes that her research findings has shed
light on the theatrical and dramatic potentials and values of Tazkerat –Al –Ulia and paves the
way for dramatization and stage adaptation of the stories of the work in question.